CEUTA & MELILLA: AL QAEDA WARNS OF EASTER ATTACKS

There is much consternation amongst the operatives of the Spanish intelligence services as they study a message from Atahadi – an Al Qaeda linked group.


It warns of terror attacks on both Ceuta and Melilla next week – Semana Santa – when Easter processions traditionally take to the streets of Spain’s North African enclaves.

The message is addressed to Muslims living in Ceuta and Melilla and tells them the attacks will be launched in markets and other popular gathering areas. Of course whilst the processions are taking place thousands of people are on the streets participating or watching the spectacle. Atahadi no doubt considers these to be a Christian affront on Islamic soil.

There are several elements to the message that concern the intelligence officers. Al Qaeda and Atahadi messages are usually in Arabic but this one has been posted in Spanish. Why the change and who wrote it for them?

In addition both Spain and Morocco want to know is the threat a device to stir up divisions between both nations over the enclaves – which Morocco claims – or are they a real threat, perhaps both?

Al Qaeda includes in its message allegations that the Moroccan and Spanish secret services have been working together with the objective of promoting a Jewish – Moroccan agenda. In response both Spain and Morocco have accused these Islamic activists of trying to destabilise relations between the two countries.

Back in November I wrote about the potential of Al Qaeda infiltrating and working with the Frente Polisario in the Western Sahara. The then view of a number of think tanks and experts in both the USA and France was this was a possibility, which if it happened would be a drastic and dangerous change in the Maghreb.

At the time Al Qaeda was not a major force in the Maghreb. Its activities were confined to areas of Mali and Mauritania where it has staged a number of kidnappings – perhaps because it is short of funds. Naturally if it were to team up with an armed force such at the Frente Polisario that limited influence would be greatly increased.

However whilst Al Qaeda is still on the sidelines it has been gaining in influence in the Maghreb in recent weeks. Al Qaeda or those sympathetic to it seem to be playing some part in the rebels fight in Libya. In addition it has been reported that Morocco has withdraw troops from the Western Sahara to bolster security at home due to the pro-democracy protests. If that is the case then Al Qaeda could certainly have slipped in to the region.

Morocco takes a very tough stance on Al Qaeda related groups so it is doubtful Atahadi could stage a major attack in Ceuta and Melilla where the Guardia Civil and National Police will also be on a high state of alert. Yet it is also possible so it will be an anxious Easter week for both communities.

Even if the threats prove to be a hoax Atahadi knows it has Spain’s intelligence service worried that it has at least one operative who writes fluent Spanish; it has achieved its objective of creating mistrust in the Christian and Muslim communities and it’s actions will be supported by those Moroccans who want a more active campaign to remove Spain from its enclaves.

IS THE FRENTE POLISARIO A TARGET FOR AL QAEDA?

I am grateful to my esteemed colleague Francisco Rubiales for pointing me to reports that the Frente Polisario in the Western Sahara may have been targeted by Al Qaeda.


Francisco, apart from being a much respected journalist, was the EFE correspondent in Cuba, Central America and Italy as well as being an advisor to the UN. Currently he also writes the very interesting Voto en Blanco blog.

Francisco reports that because of the frustration the Frente Polisario is suffering in its campaign for independence for the Western Sahara from Morocco and the lack of support from major nations it could be driven in to the hands of Al Qaeda.

Apparently some experts and think tanks dedicated to world politics in the USA and France have been discussing this possibility which if it happened would be a drastic and dangerous change in the Maghreb. It would also increase the instability in that part of the world that is of great strategic value.

Currently Al Qaeda is not a major force in the Maghreb. Its activities are confined to areas of Mali and Mauritania where it has staged a number of kidnappings – perhaps because it is short of funds. Naturally if it were to team up with an armed force such at the Frente Polisario that limited influence would be greatly increased.

Francisco says that many sectors of the Polisario and the people of the Western Sahara are now calling for a restarting of the armed struggle against Morocco. If it was a conventional war then Morocco would easily outnumber its opponents however if it because a conflict for which Al Qaeda is famed – guerrilla attacks, kidnappings and major strikes to attract the attention of the rich countries then the results could be terrible for Morocco.

Movements amongst Saharan veterans and reservists have already been detected. They have experience of past conflicts which would be invaluable in a renewed armed conflict with Morocco. Experts place the strength of the Polisario at around 70,000 – insignificant in a conventional war but scary if used in insurgency and guerrilla warfare.

The Polisario representative in Spain, Bucharaya Beyun, has declared before the media they have weapons and combatants sufficient for a war and many sections of the population in the Western Sahara are putting pressure on the organization to return to fighting Morocco.

Up till now the people of the Western Sahara have placed their hopes with the UN and the good offices of Spain and the USA to resolve the conflict. However if Morocco continues with its campaign of repression against El Aaiún and refuses to agree to a negotiated solution which allows for the self-determination of the Western Saharan people then the outcome could be terrible indeed.

Interestingly Abdeslam Maghraoui, a political science professor at Duke University who specializing in terrorism in North Africa, says there isn’t any indication that Morocco is a strategic priority for the Al Qaeda. According to the professor it has two minor networks in the country: the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group responsible for the 2003 Casablanca attacks and the 2004 metro bombings in Madrid; and the Salafiya al Jihadiya, which operates in medium-sized Moroccan towns.

However it appears Abdeslam Maghraoui agrees with the assessment of Francisco because he has stated that Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb might find non-ideological support among disenchanted Sahrawi militants in Tindouf who don’t see an end to the dispute over the Saharan region.

SOLO JIHADIST IN AL ANDALUS

The anti-terrorist experts have issued an alert on the new and lethal development in Al Qaeda – the use of western looking men and women, who live habitually in Europe or the USA and who act alone without any link to Islamic cells who are “practically undetectable”.

This is the stark warning from a conference in international terrorism organized by the UN in which members of the Guardia Civil Grupo de Análisis de Terrorismo Trasnacional participated. It has resulted in the issuing of an alert to the activities of what are called “free radicals”.

The Guardia Civil terrorism specialists along with their counterparts in the rest of the western world were alarmed by the frustrated attempt to bring down the flight over Detroit and the massacre at Fort Hood in which a lone terrorist shot dead 13 soldiers. This has led them to hunt for this new category of Al Qaeda operative – the solo Jihadist.

These terrorists are self financing and are equal to the small Islamic cells that have been dismantled in recent years in Spain. They have been dedicated to small time crime such as thefts or drug trafficking in order to raise the funds for their activities.

They do not receive training in the camps in Afghanistan or Pakistan but instead use the internet where they can link up with Jihad websites and receiving training in terrorist methods.

Second generation immigrants in to Spain who have been hit hard by the financial crisis and unemployment can be easily indoctrinated into radical Islamic ways. The difficult economic times can also hamper their integration in to their new homes in Spain or other western countries.

The spotlight on these new terrorists has been centred on Spain – the Al Andalus of the Islamists - who have used this name as their trade mark to spread Al Qaeda propaganda especially in the Islamic States across the Strait of Gibraltar in North Africa.

AL-QAEDA ON OUR DOORSTEP

If you ask a Spaniard or a resident of Spain what is the greatest terrorism threat to the country and they would probably reply ETA. After all it is home grown and hardly a week goes by without an attack, arrest or the terrorist group gaining more than its fair share of news column inches.

If you go to Spain’s southern most coastline in Tarifa and stand on the hills you feel that you can almost reach out and touch Morocco – the very continent of Africa. As you gaze at its imposing mountains it is a staggering thought but you are also looking at an Al-Qaeda stronghold – here on our very doorstep. Suddenly this terror group which knocks ETA in to the shade is not far away in Pakistan or Afghanistan but on our doorstep.

In recent days the news has broken that Moroccan police have arrested several Islamists on suspicion of links to Jihadist cells. This news will have been studied with keen interest by the security forces in Spain and elsewhere in mainland Europe. The Moroccan Ministry of the Interior stated that some were suspected of plotting bank raids to finance the purchase of weapons.

It is estimated that Morocco already holds more than 1,000 Islamists in its jails on terrorism-related charges. The Government says it has broken about 60 terrorist cells since 2003, after a chain of suicide bombings in the commercial capital Casablanca.

Those terrorist bombings on May 16, 2003, killed 45 people, including the 12 suicide bombers. One of the main targets was a Spanish restaurant and social club, and four of the victims were Spaniards.

Whilst much relating to the latest arrests remains secret we do know that they were made in several cities throughout the country. Five of the arrested were suspected members of a jihadist cell which was preparing to set up a guerrilla training camp and plotting bank raids to fund arms purchases.

Spain’s leading anti-terrorism judge, Baltasar Garzon, has made it clear in the past that Europe’s biggest terrorist threat comes from Morocco. Security experts say it is the base for as many as 1,000 Al-Qaeda adherents capable of suicide attacks and skilled at slipping through the continent’s southern gateway, especially the port of Algeciras where there have been a number of terrorism related arrests.

Most of the 17 suspects jailed after the March 11 bombings in 2004, which killed 190 people on the Madrid railway system, are Moroccan. On the threat posed by the Morocco based cells Garzon stated: “They use every means and mechanism, and their activity can even be initially perceived as ordinary delinquency. In my opinion it is the gravest problem Europe faces today with this kind of terrorism.”

Those of us who live in the Campo de Gibraltar view Morocco as our closest neighbour. Ferries ply across the Straits at high speed, most of us have at least visited Tangier and the relations between Moroccans and the people of this area are very close. Yet the reality is that it is also home to the most feared terror group, whose murderous actions are not just restricted to events on TV, but have been witnessed on the streets of Madrid and one has to ask – where next?