WAT NO OBAMA?

It is “probable” that the US President Barack Obama will not attend the USA – EU conference to be held in Madrid between May 24 - 25.

This will come as a genuine disappoint to Spaniards as they were very much looking forward to seeing Obama in the flesh visiting their country. Whilst the US President might be under siege at home – internationally - he is still very popular and it could be that the more he is seen to be at odds with the “Fox Conservatives” in the Republican Party the higher his standing will rise.

The news will also come as a major blow to the Spanish premier José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero as the presence of Obama would have been the icing on his EU presidency cake.

The US seems to be aware of the major disappointment in Madrid and that country’s ambassador to Spain moved quickly to state the importance of the alliance between the two nations.

For Zapatero the EU presidency that runs from January to June is turning into a disaster. He has been ridiculed over his lightweight standing amongst the major European leaders. At home he was called a “cateto” – “country bumpkin” because a meeting at Davos World Economic Forum had to be halted whilst a translator told him what was being said –as he was the only person present who didn’t speak English. Mind you Spain’s opposition leader, Mariano Rajoy, doesn’t speak English either!

Make no mistake Zapatero badly needs to be walking in Obama’s shadow to sure up his popularity at home as he battles the economic crisis. Indeed both leaders may have had a lot to chat about behind the scenes as they use “socialist” policies to tackle the collapse in employment and business confidence.

Unless Obama has a profound change of mind he won’t be in Madrid or indeed Europe this spring. However, as of late, changing his mind has become an Obama trait there is hope yet. Zapatero will hope so!

OBAMA TARGETS GIBRALTAR

I was interested to read on the Panorama news website that President Obama and the US Government have Gibraltar in their sights as a potential location for money laundering because it is a tax haven.

Britain’s Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has already signalled that he is seeking international support to crack down on tax havens. This issue is due to be discussed at the G20 meeting to be held in London in April.

Panorama reports: “Gibraltar is listed in the US list of ‘secrecy jurisdictions’ and in the OECD list of tax havens, so we are bound to be in the spotlight.

“In the OECD list Gibraltar does not escape too badly, although the State Department gives us a ‘secondary’ rating when it comes to money laundering vulnerability.

“The US has legislation which President Obama wants to push through Congress. Gibraltar is on the list.”

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development removed Gibraltar from its list of ‘uncooperative’ tax havens in 2002 after it promised greater openness in tax practices.

Gibraltar denies it is a tax haven, saying it complies with EU rules on regulation, transparency and exchange of information and that it will end its tax-free regime this year by introducing a 10 percent corporate tax rate. However, to date, that doesn’t seem to have impressed the US.

In a speech on Thursday to the Royal Commonwealth Society in London Gibraltar’s Chief Minister, Peter Caruana, said he welcomed Gordon Brown’s call for a global raising of regulatory standards for financial services and looked forward to participating in it.

However Caruana added: “But let us not use it as a means of getting people to believe that tax havens and offshore financial services centres are the cause of the global financial services crisis.

“Everybody knows where the cause is and it’s not in Jersey, it’s not in Guernsey, it’s not in the Isle of Man, it’s not in Switzerland, it’s not in Gibraltar.”

Indeed one wonders if the world’s political leaders are intent on putting the spotlight on the ‘tax havens’ in an effort to deflect attention from their own gross mismanagement of their economies, especially in the USA and Britain.

WILL WE BARRACK OBAMA?

Yesterday, the day of Barack Obama’s inauguration, I received the following email from a Blog reader:

“I'm sure that, like me, your focus is very much turned on events in Washington today. Is it the Gemini (or simply the cynic) in me? - one half buying into the 'Brave New Dawn', 'Time for Change!' mood; the other sniping from the sidelines "Right!", "Again!"”

I am sure you have your own take on events but here is mine.

By the very fact that the USA has elected its first Afro-American President I believe that a profound change has occurred in that nation and its perception in the wider world.

Now what about Barack Obama?

Well, in some ways, his job is done. By simply being elected he has caused a seismic shift in American life. For that alone he will go down in history.

Will he go on to be a great president? Only time will tell because in many ways the ball is not in his court.

He will be judged by his fellow Americans by how he deals with the economic crisis. He will be judged by the rest of the world by how he, along with his Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, deals with the rest of the world.

Few, if any, will mourn the end of the Bush era. His time was up and the wider world is grateful that a Bush Mark II hasn’t stepped from the wings to take over. We’re all euphoric at seeing the back of ‘Dubya’, for now that will have to suffice.

We know that Obama can talk the talk – which he does very well. But can he walk the walk? He certainly intends to be running from day one.

A brave new world? I am not so sure. Even though I was born a Catholic I never had any great belief in miracles and unfortunately for Barack, that is what the world is expecting.

So will we end up applauding or barracking Obama? I have no idea – ask me in four or eight years.