UP THE POLL

When I was a child, which was many years ago, if somebody was thought to be a bit mad they were said to be up the pole.

I have just read in the Gibraltar Chronicle the latest opinion poll carried out amongst the Rock’s electorate and can’t help wondering if “up the poll” applies here.

It reports that the “pro-government newspaper” 7-Days says the ruling GSD will romp home with 32.73 per cent of the vote with the GSLP – Liberal coalition on 18.18 per cent.

Now I have been a Gibraltar watcher for 18 years and I can’t ever remember there being that wide a gap between the parties. Indeed in recent outings to the ballot box it has been a matter of several percentage points dividing the two.

Apparently 440 people were sampled which given the size of the Rock’s electorate is a good number. The same poll shows 37.27 per cent undecided which also has me scratching my head.

There will be one major change when Gibraltar goes to the polls either this year or next. It is expected that the veteran GSLP leader and former chief minister, Joe Bossano, will step down and that another younger blood will head the party. The most likely new leader is Fabian Picardo although Gilbert Lucudi might dispute that. Interestingly whilst this poll said 8.18 per cent favoured Joe Boss as chief minister, 6.36 preferred Fabian Picardo against the 31.98 per cent of the incumbent Peter Caruana. Thirty-five per cent didn’t know.

Now a cynic might say, so that’s me off the hook, that given that the poll was carried out by 7 Days it was merely a distorted campaigning piece for the GSD. May be so – but in recent elections the Gibraltar daily Panorama has been uncannily accurate in its polls – and it is in the opposition camp.

I have certainly not detected any such massive public opinion swing since the last elections or that the Gibraltar voters are so undecided on who to vote for. However I do acknowledge that if Joe Boss does step down from the leadership of the GSLP then it will mark as big a sea change in Gibraltar’s politics as Margaret Thatcher resigning the leadership of Britain’s Tories – and that could factor in the electorate’s indecision.

CAN RAJOY WIN AN ELECTION?

Mariano Rajoy, also known as Pappa Smurf to my readers, has not had a happy time since he succeeded José María Aznar as leader of the Partido Popular.

He seemed assured of victory in the 2004 General Election until the Madrid bombings intervened and his party’s handling of the aftermath saw the PP ejected from power. Since then he has again been defeated at the 2008 General Election by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s PSOE. To say his leadership has been under pressure amidst party scandals and other problems is to put it mildly.

Up till now, despite the economic crisis, the ruling socialist party has stayed ahead in the national opinion polls. However there is a glimmer of hope for Rajoy. An important shift in public support may be underway if the soundings for the European Parliament elections in June hold true.

According to polls published on Sunday in the Spanish national newspapers the Partido Popular has edged to a 4.5 point lead over PSOE in the June Euro elections.

This will be worrying news for the socialist government in the week after Zapatero reshuffled his government. It also comes on the back of a 70 billion euro government stimulus package to keep the economy afloat. However unemployment in Spain has almost doubled from pre-crisis levels to 15.5 percent - the highest rate in the European Union. Yet despite all that Zapatero and PSOE have put in showings in the opinion polls that Gordon Brown and his Labour Party would smear for.

In all probability the Euro Elections will be the last chance for Rajoy to win and stay at the helm of the PP. If he wins, he will survive for now and be given a springboard for the 2012 General Election. But, given that his party now has a slender lead, he goes on to another defeat – what then?

ROSA TOPS THE POLITICAL LEAGUE

Her party may have very little electoral support but Rosa Díez is currently the most valued politician in Spain. The leader of the recently formed UPyD records 5.1 in a poll by Público compared with 4.7 for Prime Minister José María Zapatero and 4.3 for the Partido Popular’s Mariano Rajoy.

Rosa Díez was the former leader of PSOE in the Basque region. Her party received just 1.9 per cent of the vote at the last election but is now recording 4 per cent.

However it is far from bad news for Zapatero and the socialists. It seems that despite the economic crisis PSOE is back in the lead. If an election was held now it would romp home with 41.3 per cent compared with 39 per cent support for the PP.

Of course different soundings give difference levels of support. La Rázon for instance gives the PP a winning percentage of the votes and more seats than the socialists.

Two things are clear though – a politician of a party with little chance of winning power is more popular than any mainstream opponent and even with the country and the world in economic turmoil Mariano Rajoy and the PP have still to convince people that their present and future would be safer in their hands. One wonders what calamity has to befall the country before Spain swings behind Rajoy.

Rosa Díez is surely a happy woman today – but the real smile must be on the face of Zapatero.