PICARDO’S CHALLENGE - And will there be a challenge to Picardo?

There are no certainties in politics. When I started writing my Gibraltar Viewpoint column back in 1993 it was in the last years of the Bossano Government. The chief minister Peter Caruana first won power back in 1996 so when the election is held next year many of the first time voters will only have been aware of his GSD administrations.


If you’d asked me back then who were likely future chief ministers I would have said Keith Azopardi and Peter Montegriffo – indeed their days may yet come. Despite his recent horrific injuries at the hands of a knifeman Daniel Feetham may still aspire to and achieve the top job in Gibraltar politics. In contrast Fabian Picardo’s arrival as a potential leader of the GSLP and hence after the next election the Rock’s Chief Minister is by contrast a recent affair.

Joe Bossano has stated both to the electorate and his party that he will not lead the GSLP in to the next election. If that is the case then a new man or woman must be at the helm by the time the GSLP goes to the polls. The seeming front runner is Fabian Picardo – yet politics has a habit of seeing the front runner fall at the last fence.

If I asked you early this year who would be leading the British Labour Party after the defeat of Gordon Brown I wonder how many would have come up with the name Ed Miliband. Certainly not his brother David - the former foreign secretary and heir apparent.

Currently the opinion polls show wide spread support for Fabian Picardo as the next GSLP leader and a coalition co-led by Dr Joseph Garcia would offer a strong challenge to the GSD and an exciting alternative for the voters. It worries the GSD as can be clearly seen by their attempts to rubbish it this early in the game.

So why did Fabian Picardo throw his hat in to the ring? He explained: “I decided to say publicly that I felt I was ready to stand when Joe Bossano confirmed last year to the AGM that he would not be seeking the post of leader this year when the post is due for re-election. I have had only encouragement since then from members of the party and its executive and a vicious response from my political opponents who have not passed up any rumour in an attempt to denigrate my candidature.”

So is he looking to step in to the job or fight off an opponent or opponents in an election?

“I don’t believe in coronations and would very much welcome a contest for the leadership of the GSLP.”

The problem for observers like me is it is difficult to see where the challenge would come from. One name that has been mentioned in the past is Gilbert Lucudi although of late he has slipped out of the public eye and down the opinion poll ratings. However his hat could still be in the ring. Lucudi told me: “Under the GSLP constitution, the leader has to stand down every two years. We did not have the election of a leader at our AGM at the beginning of this year. This means that there will be a leadership election in the New Year. Our constitution requires that this be the case. I have not yet decided whether I will be putting my name forward for this leadership election.”

Joe Bossano has been a colossus on the Gibraltar political stage and of course was the founding father of the GSLP so I asked Picardo how he thought this transition should be handled. He told me: “I have no doubt that whoever becomes the next leader of the GSLP will be respectful of the contribution that Joe Bossano has made and I know will continue to make to the GSLP and to Gibraltar generally.

“Not even Mr Bossano’s detractors can deny the massive contribution he has made already and will make in a new GSLP/Liberal administration as we put our common energy and fresh ideas at the disposal of the people of Gibraltar. The "transition" will be no more than a generational evolution at the top of the party that will consolidate its policies for another generation.”

(The above appeared in the Monday December 20 edition of Panorama).

LABOUR’S NEXT LEADERSHIP CONTEST

In his respected blog ahead of the result being declared in the UK Labour Party leadership election Iain Dale wrote: “I am still at a bit off a loss to explain the reason why the Labour leadership contest has bored most people rigid - even those who have taken part in it. Most of my Labour friends say it has inspired no one and been a total letdown. The only explanation I can think of is that Labour is now in the position the Tories were in 1997 - no one’s really interested in what they’ve got to say.”

Few would disagree with that view but what happened after the result was announced with Ed Miliband defeating the New Labour favourite, his brother David – who then quit frontline politics, for now - was certainly exciting stuff. Bored rigid we weren’t.

Now all eyes turn to the next Labour Leadership contest – not in the UK but in Gibraltar. For in 2011 the leader of the GSLP, Joe Bossano, is due to stand down ahead of the general election with a new man (or possibly woman if one comes forward) leading the troops and their allies in the Liberal Party in to battle with the governing GSD.

The GSLP is a Gibraltarian animal yet its very roots are within the British Labour movement. The party was formed by Joe Bossano who had been a member of the old Labour Party in London before returning to the Rock and leading the TGWU. The actual creation of the GSLP took place with the guidance of a stalwart of the Labour Co-operative movement in London, Alf Lomas. Joe Bossano became leader of the GSLP, led the party in to the 1978 election, has been at the helm ever since and chief minister twice.

In his recent speech the chief minister, Peter Caruana, snipped at the coming leadership changes in the GSLP. Caruana is no fool; you do not get to be leader of your party over such a long term and win four consecutive elections, if you are not surefooted and rule with a rod of iron.

The GSLP is vulnerable to criticism over the long tenure of Bossano and that is something the outgoing leader and the party will have to address as the next election nears. However Caruana’s lampooning of Bossano has as much to do with deflecting questioning of the future stewardship of his own GSD as that of the GSLP. In addition his targeting of Fabian Picardo disguises the fact that the potential heir to the GSLP throne has inflicted a bloody nose or two on the chief minister in their battles across the floor of Gibraltar’s parliament.

Caruana is probably also wrong in his view that the new leader of the GSLP, if he or she won the election, would be a mere proxy for Bossano as chief minister. That may or may not be the intention of Bossano but once you step down the balance of power shifts and in its place would be a young double team of the new GSLP boss and Joe Garcia, the Liberal leader. Unlike the UK where the coalition rocks this relationship is tried and tested. Hence if Picardo wins the crown it would be very solid because both he and Garcia are from the same root stock.

I will refrain here from suggesting Fabian Picardo will be the next leader of the GSLP because as with Gordon Brown (1994) and David Miliband it was a case of heir today, gone tomorrow. There are other politicians in the GSLP parliamentary group and the wider party who might also throw their hats in to the ring and I think it is important that they should.

I believe the GSLP should have a leadership contest rather that an election by acclaim for two reasons. First the new leader would be strengthened by being the choice of the majority of the party rather than being the only anointed kid on the block. Second it is important that he or she shows they can win an election albeit an internal one.

Yet the chief minister is right in one aspect – it is vital that the GSLP under its new leadership redefines what it stands for –staying true to its founding principles but a new look socialist party for a new generation.

(Photo: Joe Bossano and Fabian Picardo at UN)

(Above article appeared in Panorama on September 4 2010)

THE HASSAN LEGACY

As regular readers of my blog will know I am partial to chewing the cud so when I visit Gibraltar I like to have a coffee and munch on the political fat of the Rock’s politics. Hence I sometimes call in for a chat with Fabian Picardo who, apart from being an emerging big beast with the opposition GSLP, is also a leading lawyer with Hassans.

Back in April I called in to the Hassans offices to see Fabian and instead of being shown to one of the small meeting rooms to the right of reception I found myself directed to a large room on the left. I was rather taken back as it seemed not a meeting room but more likely the partners’ boardroom.

As I waited for Fabian to join me I notice that on the wall at the head of the table was an old photograph, probably of a very young Sir Joshua Hassan. Fabian later confirmed this was so, and if I remember rightly – which I am prone not to do – it was taken around the time that the then Joshua Hassan became a lawyer. As he was called to the bar in 1939 it must be 70 years old.

Now with most portraits they look at you head on. However Sir Joshua’s head is slightly turned to the right so it appears that he is listening in to your conversation. It might have been the effects of the strong black coffee but I would have waged he was trying to catch our words of wisdom on the Rock’s politics of the day. Indeed I am sure he was.

The name Hassans is today international recognised both in the legal profession and the business world as being one of the most respected chambers around. Whilst Sir Joshua was an eminent lawyer and a QC he was also twice chief minister of Gibraltar’s then administrations. His political success was founded on his work as leader of the Association for the Advancement of Civil Rights (AACR) – a civil rights movement that fought for the self determination of the Gibraltar people and the establishment of many of its present political institutions.

So it is perhaps fitting that within the ranks of Hassans legal beagles are individuals who are making their mark on the political life of the Rock. When the GSLP leader, Joe Bossano, finally leaves the stage Fabian Picardo could well take his place. However a few offices down the corridor sits Gilbert Licudi who is probably his chief rival for the post. So come the next general election on the Rock it is a possibility that either Picardo or Licudi could emerge as chief minister – with certainly one or the other holding a key ministry in that government.

Not far away is Peter Montegriffo who in the first GSD administration of chief minister, Peter Caruana, was deputy leader of the party and minister for trade and industry from 1996 to 2000. He did not seek re-election but it would take a braver man than me to suggest that his political career is over; indeed I suspect the opposite is the truth, so maybe he too will still be chief minister.

Feetham is also a well known name in Gibraltar politics – Michael Feetham having being a founder member of the GSLP in 1979 and minister in one of Joe Bossano’s administrations. At Hassans you’ll find Nigel Feetham, brother to Daniel who is currently a GSD minister. Now Nigel was a member of the GSLP with Daniel and when he walked out to form the Labour Party Nigel followed in his wake and played a major part in that short-lived party. I always had a suspicion that Nigel might be the dark horse in Gibraltar politics and although he now is seemingly lying doggo who knows he may yet emerge to eclipse his brother. By-the-by before Daniel was elected an MP at the last election and became fittingly minister for justice he too plied his trade at Hassans.

There may be others in the ranks of Hassans’ lawyers who have political ambitions and no doubt others will join in the coming years. However I think it is fascinating that the legacy of Sir Joshua lives on at Hassans both in the legal world but also in the political arena.

Of course “political” chambers are not unknown in the UK but they tend to be aligned to a certain party. Today AACR might beat on in the hearts and even have a place in the souls of the older generation of Llanitos but the party itself does not. I believe at heart Sir Joshua was a socialist but the lawyers in Hassans ranks, who are intent on political careers, seemingly represent a far broader spectrum of beliefs thus ensuring the Hassan legacy is firmly intact.

THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST

I have been reading a report in the Gibraltar Chronicle on an interview the veteran leader of the GSLP Joe Bossano gave to Andalucía Información.

Now the 72-year-old politician had announced that the last election would be his swan song as leader so a new talent has to step forward. The Chronicle quotes him as saying that a future new leader of the GSLP will be responsible for the decisions that he takes, just as he himself is now, but points out that if at any moment that leader “takes a crazy decision, it will be good that there is somebody with experience to advise him.”

Well the most likely inheritor of Joe Bossano’s crown is the opposition big beast Fabian Picardo although Gilbert Lucadi and others may dispute that. However Joe Bossano’s remarks seem to conjure up the spectre of him hovering at his successor’s shoulder giving “helpful advice”.

I am of the school that believes that when a political leader leaves the stage he or she should not sneak off to the prompter’s booth or heckle from the stalls. Going should mean just that - going. The majority of Britain’s party leaders of the past half century managed the feat with the exception of Ted Heath who haunted Margaret Thatcher like the Ghost of Christmas Past to his dying day.

There is however a problem with the GSLP. Gibraltar’s socialist party is very much the personal fiefdom of Joe Boss, its founder. There is a large percentage of people on the Rock who would never vote for the GSLP because they cannot abide Bossano. Equally there is another chunk of the population that votes GSLP solely because he is the leader. The day he is taken out of the equation it is difficult to know which way the voters will jump.

It will help the next leader of the GSLP if him or her can win the general election and hence become chief minister. Although Joe Bossano led the government in the late 1980s and early 1990s he has lost four elections on the trot. If Picardo or others can snatch the Rock’s top job Joe Boss can be shoved in to the background. Fail and he will be at their shoulder till his dying day.

When I passed the GSLP HQ the other day I am sure I heard the faint rattle of chains.

PINAR DEL REY: THREE VIEWS

Over 500 residents of the Campo de Gibraltar and Gibraltar took to the streets of San Roque on Sunday to march in the defence of the Pinar del Rey. The 200-year-old woodland covering over 360 hectares is under threat from government proposals to run part of the future A-7 dual carriageway through the southern corner of the area’s vital green lung.

The demonstration was staged by Verdemar – Ecologistas en Acción who from the start have led the opposition to the road. For the first time all the political groups at San Roque town hall backed the protest which was strictly non-political so that it could be supported by all.

The environmental impact report (DIA) produced by the Ministry of the Environment has proposed that the motorway would be carried over the southern corner on a viaduct over 300 metres long with just one support point. It would also have acoustic panels and plants surrounding it to lessen its environmental impact.

However both the ecologists and residents want the road to be kept away from the woodland. Verdemar admits the problem is a difficult one but suggests the road should go further to the south so as to avoid the valuable water resources of La Alhaja. Ahead of the protest the Ministry of Public Works promised it would study the situation but whether that was in the hope of stalling the demonstration or is a genuine effort to find a solution only time will tell.

Local activist Ángela Aguilera addressed the crowd declaring it was important that they fought to save the Pinar for their children and future generations. She accepted that some improvements to the infrastructure were necessary but added that they should not be carried out at a cost to the Pinar or by destroying the environment – “This is not progress.”

Now for three views on the Pinar del Rey:

Mary Finlay – British resident:

“As a resident of this beautiful area El Pinar, I commend Angeles the activist for her grip on the situation and can only say that it is a fight we must all support, even if we are not regular visitors. Complacency will only lead to central government riding roughshod over us - again - because this area has been used and abused for decades. This road must not go through the Pinar- even the edge- because it demonstrates their complete indifference to the inhabitants and their right to a natural park, clean air and a place which for so many is the only way of escaping high rise living - imagine the uproar in Madrid should the Dehesa de La Villa be threatened in this way. The natural consequence to this would be more urbanisation along the route, not necessarily residential either- more industrial parks, all crowding and putting more pressure on an environment that is heavy with toxic industries and lacking controls on effluents and emissions and all in the name of employment for the Campo de Gibraltar. How much more does this area have to accommodate?”

Lyana Armstrong-Emery – spokesperson Friends of the Earth, Gibraltar

“As you know there was another demonstration held in San Roque yesterday to which members of Friends of the Earth attended. Pinar del Rey has been enjoyed by Gibraltarian families for many years. It is a place of great beauty and tranquillity in the midst of the ever increasing surrounding industrialised and populated areas. It would be a great shame that in this time of economic recession were more people are finally realising the importance of going back to basics and enjoying what nature has already given us that we now destroy it. Friends of the Earth, Gibraltar are seriously concerned about the erosion of yet another green area. We support other environmental groups as well as the residents from the surrounding area in their campaign to stop the motorway being built through it. There appears to be a constant development programme that lacks respect for our environment and its people and we need to stand firm against it.”

Fabian Picardo – Gibraltar Opposition GSLP MP

“I will not get involved in telling our neighbours what they should or should not do in terms of urban or rural planning; but certainly any steps which deprive families of a natural environment and the area of a ‘green lung’ such as ‘El Pinar are clearly negative and to be resisted.”

So what’s your view?

EARTH TREMOR IN GIBRALTAR

There was a major earth tremor in Gibraltar on Monday evening. No it wasn’t reported in the media but it happened – trust me, I’m a journalist.

Joe Bossano was again re-elected as leader of the GSLP – no news there then – but the fact that Fabian Picardo came forward to put his hat in the ring as a future leader without ructions could only have happened if Joe Boss had given the nod. That event alone meant the tectonic plates below the Rock’s political parties made a major shift as the big beasts Bossano and Caruana contemplate their futures.

It was back in 2001 that Daniel Feetham stomped out of the GSLP because Joe Boss would not make way for the younger generation snapping at his heals. Daniel then formed the Labour Party and after that fell flat on its face scampered off to the ruling GSD where he now keeps a low profile in a cupboard marked Minister of Justice. Rough justice or poetic justice perhaps. Compared with the ructions of the Feetham exit the stepping forward of Picardo – and I have no reason to expect that he’ll go unchallenged – was as smooth as a gentle waltz.

Before the last election Joe Boss made it known that he would not fight again as leader – and appears to intend to keep his word. So whilst he still holds on to the mantle the talented younger generation that now make up the GSLP ranks are coming to the starting line to see who takes over. The next election is due in 2011 or 2012 so we can expect Joe Boss to gently ease out and allow for an election at a future AGM.

It appears that Joe Boss will stay on as an MP after he steps down as leader. This is good news and bad news for the party. The GSLP is very much a Bossano fiefdom and many of its supporters, especially the older generation, are very loyal to him. If he is a GSLP candidate they will turn out for the party again. The bad news is that it is generally accepted that once a leader steps down, he should scoot off as soon as possible to allow the new team a clean run. José María Aznar, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher come to mind – but so too does Ted Heath who sat in the House of Commons scowling at Mrs T during her entire reign. So whoever leads the GSLP will have to make sure Joe Boss knows his place – and stays there.

The wise money is probably on Fabian Picardo to lead the GSLP – he is well known and has been Joe Boss’s side kick even making trips with him to the UN. Gilbert Lucadi is also in the frame and is not only a political colleague of Picardo’s but a legal one as well. There could be others. Far be it from me to wish to be seen pointing out the Messiah at this stage in the game. If a week is a long time in politics – then two or three years is an eternity.

Just one thing worries me on the GSLP’s part. The chief minister and GSD leader, Peter Caruana, has beaten Joe Boss four times on the trot and probably believes he can take him a fifth time too. OK that is not on the cards – but if in 2010 Joe Boss is hanging on for another year – and if the wily Caruana calls a snap general election – then either the GSLP would have to go to the polls with Bossano at the helm or be caught up in a leadership battle when they should be fighting the GSD. Hence the sooner the GSLP has its future leader in place or anointed, waiting in the wings – the better.

WILL PICARDO LEAD THE GSLP?

In my blog of yesterday I touched on the pledge made by the veteran leader of the GSLP and former chief minister of Gibraltar, Joe Bossano, that he would stand down before the next election.

If he is true to his word, and God forbid that a politician shouldn’t be, then the big game on the Rock at the moment is guessing who his successor would be.

According to an opinion poll carried out by the Gibraltar Chronicle 61 per cent of those questioned believed the new leader of the GSLP should be Fabian Picardo. He scores massively over Gilbert Licudi (18 per cent) and the leader of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Dr Joseph Garcia on 12 per cent.

Certainly Picardo has been Joe Boss’s bag carrier on his international trips such as to the UN in New York. He also has achieved a high profile in Parliament and seems to rattle chief minister Peter Caruana’s cage as effectively as his leader.

Although Picardo (a lawyer by the way) works actively alongside Dr Joseph Garcia there is bound to be some tension as Fabian was once one of his Liberal soldiers before he switched ranks to the GSLP. As far as I am aware Joe Boss has yet to anoint a successor but indeed Picardo must be the favourite.

Whoever wins the GSLP crown they would appear to have a battle on their hands. Although the 2007 General Election was tight with GBC in its exit poll predicting a GSLP win Peter Caruana and his GSD just scrapped home. Should a poll be held now then the Chronicle says the ruling GSD would win 62 per cent of the vote with the GSLP/Liberal Alliance on 34 per cent and the PDP at 4 per cent.

Another question is, of course, will Caruana lead the GSD to the polls – but that we will save for another day.