BOSSANO CAN’T BE THE ELECTION ISSUE

In Panorama on Monday Joe Garcia gave a fine forensic analysis as to why the chief minister might be opting for calling an election either before Christmas or shortly afterwards. Caruana is a wily fox and he would indeed be mad if the options laid out in that article were not being considered by him and his fellow GSD members.

Over the last year I have discussed the pending GSLP leadership change with members of the party. I have been assured that it will happen in the early part of next year so the new leader can be installed before a general election at the end of the year. But what if Caruana goes early I keep asking? To date I have yet to receive a satisfactory reply.

Joe Bossano signalled at the last election he would not contest another as leader and I believe him. However if the chief minister announced an election now the GSLP would be in turmoil. It would either have to have an internal election before turning its attention to the general election, a new leader could be shoe horned in – hardly an ideal solution - or Joe would carry on at the helm to after the election and then stand down, sometime.

Whenever the election is called the main issue should be the stewardship of Gibraltar’s affairs by the GSD since 1996. The public if the opinion polls can be believed had had enough of Caruana and the GSD and want a new government. The GSLP – Liberal alliance led by Fabian Picardo and Dr Joseph Garcia would offer the Rock a young yet experienced partnership. Equally another parliamentarian such as Gilbert Licudi could win the GSLP crown but the offering to the voters would be the same. If the GSLP went outside its MPs then we would have to see who was chosen to lead.

If it is Picardo or Licudi partnering Garcia then Caruana and the GSD would have their work cut out. The electorate has presumed that Bossano would be yesterday’s man by polling day so when asked who they would vote for have factored in his departure yet they still opted for the GSLP – Liberal coalition.

Bossano becomes an election issue if the chief minister moves quickly and leave the GSLP in turmoil with him still at the helm. Then Bossano and not the GSD’s record will be under the spotlight and that could prove fatal for the opposition coalition. I can see no reason why the GSLP cannot elect a new leader now - but if need be Bossano could lead the parliamentary team until the new man or woman has his or her feet under the table.

The GSD’s record in government has to be the issue and the attempts by the chief minister to wrap himself in the flag should fail miserably. First the GSLP and Liberals have been more outspoken than he in defending Gibraltar’s independence from Spain. In addition Caruana’s whole period in office has been dedicated to seeking accommodation with Spain through the Córdoba process and Trilaterals – that initiative now lies in ruins so trying to out Bossano Bossano won’t work.

Turning the heat on the Bossano issue would also deflect from the major problems within the GSD. Should Caruana run again or not? Will Montegriffo return? How many of the present government team will stand? Then there is the Feetham factor but that would take a whole article on its own.

(The above article appeared on October 20, 2010 in Panorama).

WILL THE GSD MAKE THE NEWS?

Some years ago I wrote that when the colossi of Gibraltar politics, Peter Caruana and Joe Bossano, decided to call it a day it would cause major seismic change.

Well Joe Bossano has announced he will not lead his GSLP in to the elections expected in 2011. He founded the party and will be a player but he will not be the Rock’s next chief minister if the GSLP – Liberal coalition triumphs as present opinion polls indicate it will.

I presumed this would be the news, now I am not so sure. Joe Boss has delivered a GSLP in good shape to the next generation of leaders and the alliance with the Liberals has never been stronger. So maybe the news will be elsewhere.

Peter Caruana led his centre-right GSD to power in 1996 and has been a victor at the polls on four consecutive occasions. So surely he’ll go for a fifth victory or will he?

Gibraltar’s legendary leader, Sir Joshua Hassan, was a four term chief minister so Caruana has matched his record. If Caurana went for a fifth – and won – he would cement his place in the Rock’s history. Yet if he lost he’d be remembered more for that defeat than his victories.

So why should he pass up another attempt? Two opinion polls in the Chronicle and Panorama have suggested he would be defeated. Polling day is still a long way off but if the people of the Rock have decided it is time for a change there is little Caruana can do to stem that tide. Also the Bossano bogeyman will no longer be there to poke a stick at – the GSLP – Liberals will be led by a new generation of politicians – as Cameron and Clegg have demonstrated it can be an irresistible combination.

If Caruana did lose I doubt he would hang about to lead the loyal opposition as Bossano has. He’d rush off in his wig and gown to earn some dosh at the Bar.

Which of course leaves his GSD in a quandary. It had been assumed that his deputy Joe Holliday would be the man to take over but there have been suggestions he won’t be a candidate at the next elections even if Caruana fights on. This would open up a power battle within the GSD that could split the party asunder.

The minister of justice, Daniel Feetham, has ambitions to the top job. However a political carpet bagger he may be but also at heart he is a socialist. His father was a minister in one of Bossano’s administrations, Danny was a member of New Labour in the UK, joined the GSLP but stamped his foot when Bossano wouldn’t stand down, rushed off to form the Labour Party and after getting a bloody nose at the polls scampered off to be Caruana’s bag carrier before being elected at the last election.

Feetham joining the GSD and its merger with his Labour Party has already caused a split with several key members including political heavyweights Keith Azopardi and Nick Cruz going off to form the PDP. It is difficult to see Feetham leading a party whose core membership oppose everything he stands for. However if he tries and fails it could see the leaders of the struggling PDP and perhaps former deputy chief minister Peter Montegriffo returning to the GSD as soon as Caruana is out of the door.

I suspect whilst all eyes are currently on the GSLP it is the GSD where the action will be. I shall keep looking in both directions.

ROLL ON THE GIBRALTAR ELECTION!

I have had a keen interest in politics from my schooldays but have been a student of election campaigns since the late 1960s when my then advertising agency, which was Canadian, played a key role in that country’s Liberal Party’s political broadcasts.

So with the UK elections over perhaps for five years and Spain’s not due to 2012 my mind turns to Gibraltar probably in 2011.

I have been following politics on the Rock since 1993 so the next general election will be my fifth – and by chance could be the fifth successive victory for the GSD leader and current chief minister Peter Caruana.

Gibraltar has a small electorate and in recent years the polls have been fairly close. Indeed they were so close in 2006 that the broadcaster GBC called victory for the GSLP Liberal opposition after the polls closed only for the GSD to squeeze back in.

The next election will be special because it will be the first in which Joe Bossano, a former chief minister, does not lead his GSLP in to battle. ‘Old Labour’ Bossano is the GSLP’s greatest asset and liability. Half the voters worship him; the other half wouldn’t even poke him with the proverbial barge poll. To have him off-stage is an intriguing prospect. Will his traditional supporters still rally round his party? Will his exit attract new voters to the party’s colours? And more intriguingly – who will take his place?

For me to back a candidate would be the kiss of death for whoever I name. However the wise money has to be on Fabian Picardo who has been Bossano’s adjutant in recent years and scores highly in the opinion polls. A young talented lawyer he represents the new breed of Gibraltar’s politicians but there are others such as another legal eagle Gilbert Lucudi from the same Hassans internationally ranked law firm in the frame.

It is difficult to see the Liberal leader Dr Joseph Garcia ever taking the Rock’s top political job. He leads the junior partner in the coalition so would always be playing second fiddle. I always think of Joseph as being young – and indeed he is only in his early 40s. He has always been the Liberal leader in all the elections I have covered so obviously started out very young indeed. He is highly thought of in the international Liberal movement but it is difficult to see how he would become chief minister unless the GSLP and Liberals merge. However Picardo and Garcia come from the same political root stock so if they are both party leaders it could prove to be an intriguing combination. Indeed it would be interesting, nay exciting, to see how London and Madrid react to a Picardo – Garcia administration.

The Liberals went in to coalition with the GSLP for the 2000 elections (after the 1996 elections which were a feisty affair between Garcia and Bossano). Cameron and Clegg know that feeling well but the bond between the Rock’s parties is growing in strength – I wonder if British coalition will last for anything like so long.

I have always been puzzled at the coming together of the Liberals and GSLP - and although I have discussed it with both Bossano and Garcia am none the wiser. When the coalition was formed the GSLP had recently been the party of government and the Liberals just scraped along on a few percentage points of the votes (4.7 the same in 1996 as 1992) – so it didn’t even claim a seat in the then House of Assembly. By joining with the Liberals Bossano gave Garcia three of his seven GSLP seats – an act which I cannot comprehend. What was in it for Bossano? Well he gained access to the Liberals talent pool and given the tight nature of Gibraltar’s elections a few percent extra votes – however this was never sufficient to win back power. For the Liberals it was electoral manna from heaven with their percentage of the vote growing with the stature of Dr Joseph.

So what of the ruling GSD? Well as Bossano has been the GSLP the chief minister Peter Caruana is the GSD. He shows no signs of quitting and has indicated it will be the people of the Rock who show him the door (which the Gibraltar Chronicle opinion poll indicates could happen in 2011) and not his party. When the future battle for the leadership takes place it could revolve around the current Minister for Justice Daniel Feetham. He was a member of New Labour in the UK, joined the GSLP of his father on his return to the Rock, fell out with Bossano because he wouldn’t give a date to step aside, formed the Labour Party that did nothing at the 2003 election then scuttled off to join the GSD for whom he stood in 2006. He is a political carpetbagger, as a divisive figure in the GSD as he was in the GSLP and when the push for the throne comes, if he intends to be amongst the runners, it could split the party asunder in the process.

So roll on 2011! One thing is true if you have an interest in politics – you always live in interesting times!

WILL PICARDO LEAD THE GSLP?

In my blog of yesterday I touched on the pledge made by the veteran leader of the GSLP and former chief minister of Gibraltar, Joe Bossano, that he would stand down before the next election.

If he is true to his word, and God forbid that a politician shouldn’t be, then the big game on the Rock at the moment is guessing who his successor would be.

According to an opinion poll carried out by the Gibraltar Chronicle 61 per cent of those questioned believed the new leader of the GSLP should be Fabian Picardo. He scores massively over Gilbert Licudi (18 per cent) and the leader of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Dr Joseph Garcia on 12 per cent.

Certainly Picardo has been Joe Boss’s bag carrier on his international trips such as to the UN in New York. He also has achieved a high profile in Parliament and seems to rattle chief minister Peter Caruana’s cage as effectively as his leader.

Although Picardo (a lawyer by the way) works actively alongside Dr Joseph Garcia there is bound to be some tension as Fabian was once one of his Liberal soldiers before he switched ranks to the GSLP. As far as I am aware Joe Boss has yet to anoint a successor but indeed Picardo must be the favourite.

Whoever wins the GSLP crown they would appear to have a battle on their hands. Although the 2007 General Election was tight with GBC in its exit poll predicting a GSLP win Peter Caruana and his GSD just scrapped home. Should a poll be held now then the Chronicle says the ruling GSD would win 62 per cent of the vote with the GSLP/Liberal Alliance on 34 per cent and the PDP at 4 per cent.

Another question is, of course, will Caruana lead the GSD to the polls – but that we will save for another day.