PICARDO’S CHALLENGE - And will there be a challenge to Picardo?

There are no certainties in politics. When I started writing my Gibraltar Viewpoint column back in 1993 it was in the last years of the Bossano Government. The chief minister Peter Caruana first won power back in 1996 so when the election is held next year many of the first time voters will only have been aware of his GSD administrations.


If you’d asked me back then who were likely future chief ministers I would have said Keith Azopardi and Peter Montegriffo – indeed their days may yet come. Despite his recent horrific injuries at the hands of a knifeman Daniel Feetham may still aspire to and achieve the top job in Gibraltar politics. In contrast Fabian Picardo’s arrival as a potential leader of the GSLP and hence after the next election the Rock’s Chief Minister is by contrast a recent affair.

Joe Bossano has stated both to the electorate and his party that he will not lead the GSLP in to the next election. If that is the case then a new man or woman must be at the helm by the time the GSLP goes to the polls. The seeming front runner is Fabian Picardo – yet politics has a habit of seeing the front runner fall at the last fence.

If I asked you early this year who would be leading the British Labour Party after the defeat of Gordon Brown I wonder how many would have come up with the name Ed Miliband. Certainly not his brother David - the former foreign secretary and heir apparent.

Currently the opinion polls show wide spread support for Fabian Picardo as the next GSLP leader and a coalition co-led by Dr Joseph Garcia would offer a strong challenge to the GSD and an exciting alternative for the voters. It worries the GSD as can be clearly seen by their attempts to rubbish it this early in the game.

So why did Fabian Picardo throw his hat in to the ring? He explained: “I decided to say publicly that I felt I was ready to stand when Joe Bossano confirmed last year to the AGM that he would not be seeking the post of leader this year when the post is due for re-election. I have had only encouragement since then from members of the party and its executive and a vicious response from my political opponents who have not passed up any rumour in an attempt to denigrate my candidature.”

So is he looking to step in to the job or fight off an opponent or opponents in an election?

“I don’t believe in coronations and would very much welcome a contest for the leadership of the GSLP.”

The problem for observers like me is it is difficult to see where the challenge would come from. One name that has been mentioned in the past is Gilbert Lucudi although of late he has slipped out of the public eye and down the opinion poll ratings. However his hat could still be in the ring. Lucudi told me: “Under the GSLP constitution, the leader has to stand down every two years. We did not have the election of a leader at our AGM at the beginning of this year. This means that there will be a leadership election in the New Year. Our constitution requires that this be the case. I have not yet decided whether I will be putting my name forward for this leadership election.”

Joe Bossano has been a colossus on the Gibraltar political stage and of course was the founding father of the GSLP so I asked Picardo how he thought this transition should be handled. He told me: “I have no doubt that whoever becomes the next leader of the GSLP will be respectful of the contribution that Joe Bossano has made and I know will continue to make to the GSLP and to Gibraltar generally.

“Not even Mr Bossano’s detractors can deny the massive contribution he has made already and will make in a new GSLP/Liberal administration as we put our common energy and fresh ideas at the disposal of the people of Gibraltar. The "transition" will be no more than a generational evolution at the top of the party that will consolidate its policies for another generation.”

(The above appeared in the Monday December 20 edition of Panorama).

BOSSANO CAN’T BE THE ELECTION ISSUE

In Panorama on Monday Joe Garcia gave a fine forensic analysis as to why the chief minister might be opting for calling an election either before Christmas or shortly afterwards. Caruana is a wily fox and he would indeed be mad if the options laid out in that article were not being considered by him and his fellow GSD members.

Over the last year I have discussed the pending GSLP leadership change with members of the party. I have been assured that it will happen in the early part of next year so the new leader can be installed before a general election at the end of the year. But what if Caruana goes early I keep asking? To date I have yet to receive a satisfactory reply.

Joe Bossano signalled at the last election he would not contest another as leader and I believe him. However if the chief minister announced an election now the GSLP would be in turmoil. It would either have to have an internal election before turning its attention to the general election, a new leader could be shoe horned in – hardly an ideal solution - or Joe would carry on at the helm to after the election and then stand down, sometime.

Whenever the election is called the main issue should be the stewardship of Gibraltar’s affairs by the GSD since 1996. The public if the opinion polls can be believed had had enough of Caruana and the GSD and want a new government. The GSLP – Liberal alliance led by Fabian Picardo and Dr Joseph Garcia would offer the Rock a young yet experienced partnership. Equally another parliamentarian such as Gilbert Licudi could win the GSLP crown but the offering to the voters would be the same. If the GSLP went outside its MPs then we would have to see who was chosen to lead.

If it is Picardo or Licudi partnering Garcia then Caruana and the GSD would have their work cut out. The electorate has presumed that Bossano would be yesterday’s man by polling day so when asked who they would vote for have factored in his departure yet they still opted for the GSLP – Liberal coalition.

Bossano becomes an election issue if the chief minister moves quickly and leave the GSLP in turmoil with him still at the helm. Then Bossano and not the GSD’s record will be under the spotlight and that could prove fatal for the opposition coalition. I can see no reason why the GSLP cannot elect a new leader now - but if need be Bossano could lead the parliamentary team until the new man or woman has his or her feet under the table.

The GSD’s record in government has to be the issue and the attempts by the chief minister to wrap himself in the flag should fail miserably. First the GSLP and Liberals have been more outspoken than he in defending Gibraltar’s independence from Spain. In addition Caruana’s whole period in office has been dedicated to seeking accommodation with Spain through the Córdoba process and Trilaterals – that initiative now lies in ruins so trying to out Bossano Bossano won’t work.

Turning the heat on the Bossano issue would also deflect from the major problems within the GSD. Should Caruana run again or not? Will Montegriffo return? How many of the present government team will stand? Then there is the Feetham factor but that would take a whole article on its own.

(The above article appeared on October 20, 2010 in Panorama).

LABOUR’S NEXT LEADERSHIP CONTEST

In his respected blog ahead of the result being declared in the UK Labour Party leadership election Iain Dale wrote: “I am still at a bit off a loss to explain the reason why the Labour leadership contest has bored most people rigid - even those who have taken part in it. Most of my Labour friends say it has inspired no one and been a total letdown. The only explanation I can think of is that Labour is now in the position the Tories were in 1997 - no one’s really interested in what they’ve got to say.”

Few would disagree with that view but what happened after the result was announced with Ed Miliband defeating the New Labour favourite, his brother David – who then quit frontline politics, for now - was certainly exciting stuff. Bored rigid we weren’t.

Now all eyes turn to the next Labour Leadership contest – not in the UK but in Gibraltar. For in 2011 the leader of the GSLP, Joe Bossano, is due to stand down ahead of the general election with a new man (or possibly woman if one comes forward) leading the troops and their allies in the Liberal Party in to battle with the governing GSD.

The GSLP is a Gibraltarian animal yet its very roots are within the British Labour movement. The party was formed by Joe Bossano who had been a member of the old Labour Party in London before returning to the Rock and leading the TGWU. The actual creation of the GSLP took place with the guidance of a stalwart of the Labour Co-operative movement in London, Alf Lomas. Joe Bossano became leader of the GSLP, led the party in to the 1978 election, has been at the helm ever since and chief minister twice.

In his recent speech the chief minister, Peter Caruana, snipped at the coming leadership changes in the GSLP. Caruana is no fool; you do not get to be leader of your party over such a long term and win four consecutive elections, if you are not surefooted and rule with a rod of iron.

The GSLP is vulnerable to criticism over the long tenure of Bossano and that is something the outgoing leader and the party will have to address as the next election nears. However Caruana’s lampooning of Bossano has as much to do with deflecting questioning of the future stewardship of his own GSD as that of the GSLP. In addition his targeting of Fabian Picardo disguises the fact that the potential heir to the GSLP throne has inflicted a bloody nose or two on the chief minister in their battles across the floor of Gibraltar’s parliament.

Caruana is probably also wrong in his view that the new leader of the GSLP, if he or she won the election, would be a mere proxy for Bossano as chief minister. That may or may not be the intention of Bossano but once you step down the balance of power shifts and in its place would be a young double team of the new GSLP boss and Joe Garcia, the Liberal leader. Unlike the UK where the coalition rocks this relationship is tried and tested. Hence if Picardo wins the crown it would be very solid because both he and Garcia are from the same root stock.

I will refrain here from suggesting Fabian Picardo will be the next leader of the GSLP because as with Gordon Brown (1994) and David Miliband it was a case of heir today, gone tomorrow. There are other politicians in the GSLP parliamentary group and the wider party who might also throw their hats in to the ring and I think it is important that they should.

I believe the GSLP should have a leadership contest rather that an election by acclaim for two reasons. First the new leader would be strengthened by being the choice of the majority of the party rather than being the only anointed kid on the block. Second it is important that he or she shows they can win an election albeit an internal one.

Yet the chief minister is right in one aspect – it is vital that the GSLP under its new leadership redefines what it stands for –staying true to its founding principles but a new look socialist party for a new generation.

(Photo: Joe Bossano and Fabian Picardo at UN)

(Above article appeared in Panorama on September 4 2010)

SPANISH PRACTICES AT SOCIALIST INTERNATIONAL

Call me naive, call me a romantic, but my view of Socialist International was a brother and sisterhood of socialist parties united under the red flag. Well that has not been the experience of the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party due to Spanish practices by PSOE.

I start this article in Gibraltar not with the GSLP but rather the Liberal Party that has been its junior coalition partner in opposition since 2000 and if the opinion polls are correct could join it in government in 2011. The leader of the Liberals, Dr Joseph Garcia, was telling me the major role they play in Liberal International.

“Liberal International is the global federation of Liberal and Democratic political parties. There are Liberal parties from 50 countries that are full members and from 25 countries as observer members. The Liberal Party of Gibraltar is a full member in its own right. We have our own seat on the Executive Committee and our own voting rights independently of UK parties.”

It was later when I spoke to Fabian Picardo, a British trained lawyer, a GSLP MP, a possible future leader and Chief Minister that I was stunned to learn that not only was the party not a member of Socialist International but did not even have observer status.

Now if you ask Socialist International they will tell you that the GSLP has never applied for membership and hence the issue has not been discussed by the committee. Except they are unlikely to tell you anything at all. Joe Bossano, the founder of the GSLP, a former chief minister of Gibraltar and current leader confirmed they wrote to the Secretary General, Luis Ayala, around 1984/5 just prior to Spain joining the EU in 1986 and they have never had a reply despite many reminder letters. I contacted Socialist International three times without the courtesy of an answer either.

So let’s take a look at the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party. It is the oldest surviving active political party in Gibraltar. Its grass roots are deep in the British Trade Union Movement because founder and current leader Joe Bossano had lived in London’s East End where he was active in the Labour Party and union.

Indeed when he returned to Gibraltar he became the District Officer of the TGWU which during Bossano’s tenure was instrumental in achieving parity with the UK for all workers in Gibraltar. The GSLP fought its first election in 1978 and between 1988 and 1996 was the party of government.

Labour veteran Alf Lomas told me: “I have had a long association with Joe Bossano since I first went to speak in Gibraltar in the seventies to address the AGM of the TGWU. I was Political Secretary of the London Co-operative at that time and active in the union and the Labour Party. There was no GSLP in those days and Joe and I had long discussions about forming a Labour Party. I helped to draw up the constitution and was made No 1 Honorary Member of the Party on its formation.”

So what’s the Spanish take on all this. It is the opposition of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español - PSOE, which celebrated the 100 th anniversary of winning its first parliamentary seat in May that has kept the GSLP out of Socialist International.

I spoke to PSOE’s José Carracao who sits in Spain’s Senate – its upper house of parliament. He was a mayor of Jimena de la Frontera, president of the association of municipalities in the area across the border from the Rock and today has in the Senate special responsibility for Gibraltar – Spanish relations.

He said: “Gibraltar is a dependent territory of the UK and is represented internationally by the UK. The existence of “internationals” of political parties (Socialist International, Liberal International) is the consequence of national parties of the same politics coming together. From our point of view Gibraltar does not have an international presence and it represented in its external relations by the UK. The only parties that can have representation and international presence from an ideological point of view are the parties of the UK. The consequence for us is that is that Gibraltar can only have representation and an international presence by its integration or association with other parties of the same ideological point of view, with parties in the UK. This has been the position till now of PSOE and those responsible for its external relations in its various Federal Executives.”

Here are some points on José Carracao’s remarks:

Dr Joseph García said: “Spain’s Centro Democratico y Social introduced us to Liberal International and supported our membership. We have very good links with our Catalan friends and have hosted visits to Gibraltar by Catalan MPs and by the International Relations Secretary of Covergencia Democratica in the past.”

Glyn Ford, who had been the MEP for Gibraltar and is closely associated with the GSLP questioned: “How does he explain the separate SI membership of the SDLP from Northern Ireland, a British Colony!”

Whilst Alf Lomas, who was also an MEP till 1999 added: “I often clashed with the Spanish Socialist Party about Gibraltar particularly on occasions when Joe visited the Parliament as my guest. PSOE even opposed Joe coming into the EP Socialist Group Meetings.”

Although Franco died in 1975 many consider the socialist PSOE’s general election win in October 1982 as being the defining moment in Spain’s transition to democracy. Hence in 1985 Joe Bossano travelled to PSOE’s Madrid HQ to speak with Manuel Chaves – the then Minister of Labour - and Elena Flores, the International Secretary of PSOE.

At a personal level relations between PSOE and the GSLP are very cordial. They told Bossano that if Premier Felipe González had his photo taken with him at Socialist International it would cost PSOE one million votes. As Bossano did not want to harm his fellow socialists electoral chances in the 1986 election he agreed to delay an application.

I told Joe I could understand Spain’s opposition to Gibraltarian institutions but not Spanish socialists opposing Gibraltar’s socialists joining the international umbrella organization. “But Socialist International has influence,” he countered –and there we had it. Forget the PSOE mantra mouthed by José Carracao – the party is simply scared that Socialist International might follow the lead set by Liberal International and endorse Gibraltar’s right to self determination.

Surely this is the most fundamental of socialist democratic principles yet an anathema to PSOE and Spain at least where Gibraltar is concerned.

Photo: Joe Bossano campaigning 1984

(A version of the above appears in the Morning Star on Thursday July 22)

WILL THE GSD MAKE THE NEWS?

Some years ago I wrote that when the colossi of Gibraltar politics, Peter Caruana and Joe Bossano, decided to call it a day it would cause major seismic change.

Well Joe Bossano has announced he will not lead his GSLP in to the elections expected in 2011. He founded the party and will be a player but he will not be the Rock’s next chief minister if the GSLP – Liberal coalition triumphs as present opinion polls indicate it will.

I presumed this would be the news, now I am not so sure. Joe Boss has delivered a GSLP in good shape to the next generation of leaders and the alliance with the Liberals has never been stronger. So maybe the news will be elsewhere.

Peter Caruana led his centre-right GSD to power in 1996 and has been a victor at the polls on four consecutive occasions. So surely he’ll go for a fifth victory or will he?

Gibraltar’s legendary leader, Sir Joshua Hassan, was a four term chief minister so Caruana has matched his record. If Caurana went for a fifth – and won – he would cement his place in the Rock’s history. Yet if he lost he’d be remembered more for that defeat than his victories.

So why should he pass up another attempt? Two opinion polls in the Chronicle and Panorama have suggested he would be defeated. Polling day is still a long way off but if the people of the Rock have decided it is time for a change there is little Caruana can do to stem that tide. Also the Bossano bogeyman will no longer be there to poke a stick at – the GSLP – Liberals will be led by a new generation of politicians – as Cameron and Clegg have demonstrated it can be an irresistible combination.

If Caruana did lose I doubt he would hang about to lead the loyal opposition as Bossano has. He’d rush off in his wig and gown to earn some dosh at the Bar.

Which of course leaves his GSD in a quandary. It had been assumed that his deputy Joe Holliday would be the man to take over but there have been suggestions he won’t be a candidate at the next elections even if Caruana fights on. This would open up a power battle within the GSD that could split the party asunder.

The minister of justice, Daniel Feetham, has ambitions to the top job. However a political carpet bagger he may be but also at heart he is a socialist. His father was a minister in one of Bossano’s administrations, Danny was a member of New Labour in the UK, joined the GSLP but stamped his foot when Bossano wouldn’t stand down, rushed off to form the Labour Party and after getting a bloody nose at the polls scampered off to be Caruana’s bag carrier before being elected at the last election.

Feetham joining the GSD and its merger with his Labour Party has already caused a split with several key members including political heavyweights Keith Azopardi and Nick Cruz going off to form the PDP. It is difficult to see Feetham leading a party whose core membership oppose everything he stands for. However if he tries and fails it could see the leaders of the struggling PDP and perhaps former deputy chief minister Peter Montegriffo returning to the GSD as soon as Caruana is out of the door.

I suspect whilst all eyes are currently on the GSLP it is the GSD where the action will be. I shall keep looking in both directions.

ROLL ON THE GIBRALTAR ELECTION!

I have had a keen interest in politics from my schooldays but have been a student of election campaigns since the late 1960s when my then advertising agency, which was Canadian, played a key role in that country’s Liberal Party’s political broadcasts.

So with the UK elections over perhaps for five years and Spain’s not due to 2012 my mind turns to Gibraltar probably in 2011.

I have been following politics on the Rock since 1993 so the next general election will be my fifth – and by chance could be the fifth successive victory for the GSD leader and current chief minister Peter Caruana.

Gibraltar has a small electorate and in recent years the polls have been fairly close. Indeed they were so close in 2006 that the broadcaster GBC called victory for the GSLP Liberal opposition after the polls closed only for the GSD to squeeze back in.

The next election will be special because it will be the first in which Joe Bossano, a former chief minister, does not lead his GSLP in to battle. ‘Old Labour’ Bossano is the GSLP’s greatest asset and liability. Half the voters worship him; the other half wouldn’t even poke him with the proverbial barge poll. To have him off-stage is an intriguing prospect. Will his traditional supporters still rally round his party? Will his exit attract new voters to the party’s colours? And more intriguingly – who will take his place?

For me to back a candidate would be the kiss of death for whoever I name. However the wise money has to be on Fabian Picardo who has been Bossano’s adjutant in recent years and scores highly in the opinion polls. A young talented lawyer he represents the new breed of Gibraltar’s politicians but there are others such as another legal eagle Gilbert Lucudi from the same Hassans internationally ranked law firm in the frame.

It is difficult to see the Liberal leader Dr Joseph Garcia ever taking the Rock’s top political job. He leads the junior partner in the coalition so would always be playing second fiddle. I always think of Joseph as being young – and indeed he is only in his early 40s. He has always been the Liberal leader in all the elections I have covered so obviously started out very young indeed. He is highly thought of in the international Liberal movement but it is difficult to see how he would become chief minister unless the GSLP and Liberals merge. However Picardo and Garcia come from the same political root stock so if they are both party leaders it could prove to be an intriguing combination. Indeed it would be interesting, nay exciting, to see how London and Madrid react to a Picardo – Garcia administration.

The Liberals went in to coalition with the GSLP for the 2000 elections (after the 1996 elections which were a feisty affair between Garcia and Bossano). Cameron and Clegg know that feeling well but the bond between the Rock’s parties is growing in strength – I wonder if British coalition will last for anything like so long.

I have always been puzzled at the coming together of the Liberals and GSLP - and although I have discussed it with both Bossano and Garcia am none the wiser. When the coalition was formed the GSLP had recently been the party of government and the Liberals just scraped along on a few percentage points of the votes (4.7 the same in 1996 as 1992) – so it didn’t even claim a seat in the then House of Assembly. By joining with the Liberals Bossano gave Garcia three of his seven GSLP seats – an act which I cannot comprehend. What was in it for Bossano? Well he gained access to the Liberals talent pool and given the tight nature of Gibraltar’s elections a few percent extra votes – however this was never sufficient to win back power. For the Liberals it was electoral manna from heaven with their percentage of the vote growing with the stature of Dr Joseph.

So what of the ruling GSD? Well as Bossano has been the GSLP the chief minister Peter Caruana is the GSD. He shows no signs of quitting and has indicated it will be the people of the Rock who show him the door (which the Gibraltar Chronicle opinion poll indicates could happen in 2011) and not his party. When the future battle for the leadership takes place it could revolve around the current Minister for Justice Daniel Feetham. He was a member of New Labour in the UK, joined the GSLP of his father on his return to the Rock, fell out with Bossano because he wouldn’t give a date to step aside, formed the Labour Party that did nothing at the 2003 election then scuttled off to join the GSD for whom he stood in 2006. He is a political carpetbagger, as a divisive figure in the GSD as he was in the GSLP and when the push for the throne comes, if he intends to be amongst the runners, it could split the party asunder in the process.

So roll on 2011! One thing is true if you have an interest in politics – you always live in interesting times!

THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST

I have been reading a report in the Gibraltar Chronicle on an interview the veteran leader of the GSLP Joe Bossano gave to Andalucía Información.

Now the 72-year-old politician had announced that the last election would be his swan song as leader so a new talent has to step forward. The Chronicle quotes him as saying that a future new leader of the GSLP will be responsible for the decisions that he takes, just as he himself is now, but points out that if at any moment that leader “takes a crazy decision, it will be good that there is somebody with experience to advise him.”

Well the most likely inheritor of Joe Bossano’s crown is the opposition big beast Fabian Picardo although Gilbert Lucadi and others may dispute that. However Joe Bossano’s remarks seem to conjure up the spectre of him hovering at his successor’s shoulder giving “helpful advice”.

I am of the school that believes that when a political leader leaves the stage he or she should not sneak off to the prompter’s booth or heckle from the stalls. Going should mean just that - going. The majority of Britain’s party leaders of the past half century managed the feat with the exception of Ted Heath who haunted Margaret Thatcher like the Ghost of Christmas Past to his dying day.

There is however a problem with the GSLP. Gibraltar’s socialist party is very much the personal fiefdom of Joe Boss, its founder. There is a large percentage of people on the Rock who would never vote for the GSLP because they cannot abide Bossano. Equally there is another chunk of the population that votes GSLP solely because he is the leader. The day he is taken out of the equation it is difficult to know which way the voters will jump.

It will help the next leader of the GSLP if him or her can win the general election and hence become chief minister. Although Joe Bossano led the government in the late 1980s and early 1990s he has lost four elections on the trot. If Picardo or others can snatch the Rock’s top job Joe Boss can be shoved in to the background. Fail and he will be at their shoulder till his dying day.

When I passed the GSLP HQ the other day I am sure I heard the faint rattle of chains.

EARTH TREMOR IN GIBRALTAR

There was a major earth tremor in Gibraltar on Monday evening. No it wasn’t reported in the media but it happened – trust me, I’m a journalist.

Joe Bossano was again re-elected as leader of the GSLP – no news there then – but the fact that Fabian Picardo came forward to put his hat in the ring as a future leader without ructions could only have happened if Joe Boss had given the nod. That event alone meant the tectonic plates below the Rock’s political parties made a major shift as the big beasts Bossano and Caruana contemplate their futures.

It was back in 2001 that Daniel Feetham stomped out of the GSLP because Joe Boss would not make way for the younger generation snapping at his heals. Daniel then formed the Labour Party and after that fell flat on its face scampered off to the ruling GSD where he now keeps a low profile in a cupboard marked Minister of Justice. Rough justice or poetic justice perhaps. Compared with the ructions of the Feetham exit the stepping forward of Picardo – and I have no reason to expect that he’ll go unchallenged – was as smooth as a gentle waltz.

Before the last election Joe Boss made it known that he would not fight again as leader – and appears to intend to keep his word. So whilst he still holds on to the mantle the talented younger generation that now make up the GSLP ranks are coming to the starting line to see who takes over. The next election is due in 2011 or 2012 so we can expect Joe Boss to gently ease out and allow for an election at a future AGM.

It appears that Joe Boss will stay on as an MP after he steps down as leader. This is good news and bad news for the party. The GSLP is very much a Bossano fiefdom and many of its supporters, especially the older generation, are very loyal to him. If he is a GSLP candidate they will turn out for the party again. The bad news is that it is generally accepted that once a leader steps down, he should scoot off as soon as possible to allow the new team a clean run. José María Aznar, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher come to mind – but so too does Ted Heath who sat in the House of Commons scowling at Mrs T during her entire reign. So whoever leads the GSLP will have to make sure Joe Boss knows his place – and stays there.

The wise money is probably on Fabian Picardo to lead the GSLP – he is well known and has been Joe Boss’s side kick even making trips with him to the UN. Gilbert Lucadi is also in the frame and is not only a political colleague of Picardo’s but a legal one as well. There could be others. Far be it from me to wish to be seen pointing out the Messiah at this stage in the game. If a week is a long time in politics – then two or three years is an eternity.

Just one thing worries me on the GSLP’s part. The chief minister and GSD leader, Peter Caruana, has beaten Joe Boss four times on the trot and probably believes he can take him a fifth time too. OK that is not on the cards – but if in 2010 Joe Boss is hanging on for another year – and if the wily Caruana calls a snap general election – then either the GSLP would have to go to the polls with Bossano at the helm or be caught up in a leadership battle when they should be fighting the GSD. Hence the sooner the GSLP has its future leader in place or anointed, waiting in the wings – the better.

WILL PICARDO LEAD THE GSLP?

In my blog of yesterday I touched on the pledge made by the veteran leader of the GSLP and former chief minister of Gibraltar, Joe Bossano, that he would stand down before the next election.

If he is true to his word, and God forbid that a politician shouldn’t be, then the big game on the Rock at the moment is guessing who his successor would be.

According to an opinion poll carried out by the Gibraltar Chronicle 61 per cent of those questioned believed the new leader of the GSLP should be Fabian Picardo. He scores massively over Gilbert Licudi (18 per cent) and the leader of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Dr Joseph Garcia on 12 per cent.

Certainly Picardo has been Joe Boss’s bag carrier on his international trips such as to the UN in New York. He also has achieved a high profile in Parliament and seems to rattle chief minister Peter Caruana’s cage as effectively as his leader.

Although Picardo (a lawyer by the way) works actively alongside Dr Joseph Garcia there is bound to be some tension as Fabian was once one of his Liberal soldiers before he switched ranks to the GSLP. As far as I am aware Joe Boss has yet to anoint a successor but indeed Picardo must be the favourite.

Whoever wins the GSLP crown they would appear to have a battle on their hands. Although the 2007 General Election was tight with GBC in its exit poll predicting a GSLP win Peter Caruana and his GSD just scrapped home. Should a poll be held now then the Chronicle says the ruling GSD would win 62 per cent of the vote with the GSLP/Liberal Alliance on 34 per cent and the PDP at 4 per cent.

Another question is, of course, will Caruana lead the GSD to the polls – but that we will save for another day.