BOSSANO CAN’T BE THE ELECTION ISSUE

In Panorama on Monday Joe Garcia gave a fine forensic analysis as to why the chief minister might be opting for calling an election either before Christmas or shortly afterwards. Caruana is a wily fox and he would indeed be mad if the options laid out in that article were not being considered by him and his fellow GSD members.

Over the last year I have discussed the pending GSLP leadership change with members of the party. I have been assured that it will happen in the early part of next year so the new leader can be installed before a general election at the end of the year. But what if Caruana goes early I keep asking? To date I have yet to receive a satisfactory reply.

Joe Bossano signalled at the last election he would not contest another as leader and I believe him. However if the chief minister announced an election now the GSLP would be in turmoil. It would either have to have an internal election before turning its attention to the general election, a new leader could be shoe horned in – hardly an ideal solution - or Joe would carry on at the helm to after the election and then stand down, sometime.

Whenever the election is called the main issue should be the stewardship of Gibraltar’s affairs by the GSD since 1996. The public if the opinion polls can be believed had had enough of Caruana and the GSD and want a new government. The GSLP – Liberal alliance led by Fabian Picardo and Dr Joseph Garcia would offer the Rock a young yet experienced partnership. Equally another parliamentarian such as Gilbert Licudi could win the GSLP crown but the offering to the voters would be the same. If the GSLP went outside its MPs then we would have to see who was chosen to lead.

If it is Picardo or Licudi partnering Garcia then Caruana and the GSD would have their work cut out. The electorate has presumed that Bossano would be yesterday’s man by polling day so when asked who they would vote for have factored in his departure yet they still opted for the GSLP – Liberal coalition.

Bossano becomes an election issue if the chief minister moves quickly and leave the GSLP in turmoil with him still at the helm. Then Bossano and not the GSD’s record will be under the spotlight and that could prove fatal for the opposition coalition. I can see no reason why the GSLP cannot elect a new leader now - but if need be Bossano could lead the parliamentary team until the new man or woman has his or her feet under the table.

The GSD’s record in government has to be the issue and the attempts by the chief minister to wrap himself in the flag should fail miserably. First the GSLP and Liberals have been more outspoken than he in defending Gibraltar’s independence from Spain. In addition Caruana’s whole period in office has been dedicated to seeking accommodation with Spain through the Córdoba process and Trilaterals – that initiative now lies in ruins so trying to out Bossano Bossano won’t work.

Turning the heat on the Bossano issue would also deflect from the major problems within the GSD. Should Caruana run again or not? Will Montegriffo return? How many of the present government team will stand? Then there is the Feetham factor but that would take a whole article on its own.

(The above article appeared on October 20, 2010 in Panorama).

LABOUR’S NEXT LEADERSHIP CONTEST

In his respected blog ahead of the result being declared in the UK Labour Party leadership election Iain Dale wrote: “I am still at a bit off a loss to explain the reason why the Labour leadership contest has bored most people rigid - even those who have taken part in it. Most of my Labour friends say it has inspired no one and been a total letdown. The only explanation I can think of is that Labour is now in the position the Tories were in 1997 - no one’s really interested in what they’ve got to say.”

Few would disagree with that view but what happened after the result was announced with Ed Miliband defeating the New Labour favourite, his brother David – who then quit frontline politics, for now - was certainly exciting stuff. Bored rigid we weren’t.

Now all eyes turn to the next Labour Leadership contest – not in the UK but in Gibraltar. For in 2011 the leader of the GSLP, Joe Bossano, is due to stand down ahead of the general election with a new man (or possibly woman if one comes forward) leading the troops and their allies in the Liberal Party in to battle with the governing GSD.

The GSLP is a Gibraltarian animal yet its very roots are within the British Labour movement. The party was formed by Joe Bossano who had been a member of the old Labour Party in London before returning to the Rock and leading the TGWU. The actual creation of the GSLP took place with the guidance of a stalwart of the Labour Co-operative movement in London, Alf Lomas. Joe Bossano became leader of the GSLP, led the party in to the 1978 election, has been at the helm ever since and chief minister twice.

In his recent speech the chief minister, Peter Caruana, snipped at the coming leadership changes in the GSLP. Caruana is no fool; you do not get to be leader of your party over such a long term and win four consecutive elections, if you are not surefooted and rule with a rod of iron.

The GSLP is vulnerable to criticism over the long tenure of Bossano and that is something the outgoing leader and the party will have to address as the next election nears. However Caruana’s lampooning of Bossano has as much to do with deflecting questioning of the future stewardship of his own GSD as that of the GSLP. In addition his targeting of Fabian Picardo disguises the fact that the potential heir to the GSLP throne has inflicted a bloody nose or two on the chief minister in their battles across the floor of Gibraltar’s parliament.

Caruana is probably also wrong in his view that the new leader of the GSLP, if he or she won the election, would be a mere proxy for Bossano as chief minister. That may or may not be the intention of Bossano but once you step down the balance of power shifts and in its place would be a young double team of the new GSLP boss and Joe Garcia, the Liberal leader. Unlike the UK where the coalition rocks this relationship is tried and tested. Hence if Picardo wins the crown it would be very solid because both he and Garcia are from the same root stock.

I will refrain here from suggesting Fabian Picardo will be the next leader of the GSLP because as with Gordon Brown (1994) and David Miliband it was a case of heir today, gone tomorrow. There are other politicians in the GSLP parliamentary group and the wider party who might also throw their hats in to the ring and I think it is important that they should.

I believe the GSLP should have a leadership contest rather that an election by acclaim for two reasons. First the new leader would be strengthened by being the choice of the majority of the party rather than being the only anointed kid on the block. Second it is important that he or she shows they can win an election albeit an internal one.

Yet the chief minister is right in one aspect – it is vital that the GSLP under its new leadership redefines what it stands for –staying true to its founding principles but a new look socialist party for a new generation.

(Photo: Joe Bossano and Fabian Picardo at UN)

(Above article appeared in Panorama on September 4 2010)

THE HASSAN LEGACY

As regular readers of my blog will know I am partial to chewing the cud so when I visit Gibraltar I like to have a coffee and munch on the political fat of the Rock’s politics. Hence I sometimes call in for a chat with Fabian Picardo who, apart from being an emerging big beast with the opposition GSLP, is also a leading lawyer with Hassans.

Back in April I called in to the Hassans offices to see Fabian and instead of being shown to one of the small meeting rooms to the right of reception I found myself directed to a large room on the left. I was rather taken back as it seemed not a meeting room but more likely the partners’ boardroom.

As I waited for Fabian to join me I notice that on the wall at the head of the table was an old photograph, probably of a very young Sir Joshua Hassan. Fabian later confirmed this was so, and if I remember rightly – which I am prone not to do – it was taken around the time that the then Joshua Hassan became a lawyer. As he was called to the bar in 1939 it must be 70 years old.

Now with most portraits they look at you head on. However Sir Joshua’s head is slightly turned to the right so it appears that he is listening in to your conversation. It might have been the effects of the strong black coffee but I would have waged he was trying to catch our words of wisdom on the Rock’s politics of the day. Indeed I am sure he was.

The name Hassans is today international recognised both in the legal profession and the business world as being one of the most respected chambers around. Whilst Sir Joshua was an eminent lawyer and a QC he was also twice chief minister of Gibraltar’s then administrations. His political success was founded on his work as leader of the Association for the Advancement of Civil Rights (AACR) – a civil rights movement that fought for the self determination of the Gibraltar people and the establishment of many of its present political institutions.

So it is perhaps fitting that within the ranks of Hassans legal beagles are individuals who are making their mark on the political life of the Rock. When the GSLP leader, Joe Bossano, finally leaves the stage Fabian Picardo could well take his place. However a few offices down the corridor sits Gilbert Licudi who is probably his chief rival for the post. So come the next general election on the Rock it is a possibility that either Picardo or Licudi could emerge as chief minister – with certainly one or the other holding a key ministry in that government.

Not far away is Peter Montegriffo who in the first GSD administration of chief minister, Peter Caruana, was deputy leader of the party and minister for trade and industry from 1996 to 2000. He did not seek re-election but it would take a braver man than me to suggest that his political career is over; indeed I suspect the opposite is the truth, so maybe he too will still be chief minister.

Feetham is also a well known name in Gibraltar politics – Michael Feetham having being a founder member of the GSLP in 1979 and minister in one of Joe Bossano’s administrations. At Hassans you’ll find Nigel Feetham, brother to Daniel who is currently a GSD minister. Now Nigel was a member of the GSLP with Daniel and when he walked out to form the Labour Party Nigel followed in his wake and played a major part in that short-lived party. I always had a suspicion that Nigel might be the dark horse in Gibraltar politics and although he now is seemingly lying doggo who knows he may yet emerge to eclipse his brother. By-the-by before Daniel was elected an MP at the last election and became fittingly minister for justice he too plied his trade at Hassans.

There may be others in the ranks of Hassans’ lawyers who have political ambitions and no doubt others will join in the coming years. However I think it is fascinating that the legacy of Sir Joshua lives on at Hassans both in the legal world but also in the political arena.

Of course “political” chambers are not unknown in the UK but they tend to be aligned to a certain party. Today AACR might beat on in the hearts and even have a place in the souls of the older generation of Llanitos but the party itself does not. I believe at heart Sir Joshua was a socialist but the lawyers in Hassans ranks, who are intent on political careers, seemingly represent a far broader spectrum of beliefs thus ensuring the Hassan legacy is firmly intact.

THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST

I have been reading a report in the Gibraltar Chronicle on an interview the veteran leader of the GSLP Joe Bossano gave to Andalucía Información.

Now the 72-year-old politician had announced that the last election would be his swan song as leader so a new talent has to step forward. The Chronicle quotes him as saying that a future new leader of the GSLP will be responsible for the decisions that he takes, just as he himself is now, but points out that if at any moment that leader “takes a crazy decision, it will be good that there is somebody with experience to advise him.”

Well the most likely inheritor of Joe Bossano’s crown is the opposition big beast Fabian Picardo although Gilbert Lucadi and others may dispute that. However Joe Bossano’s remarks seem to conjure up the spectre of him hovering at his successor’s shoulder giving “helpful advice”.

I am of the school that believes that when a political leader leaves the stage he or she should not sneak off to the prompter’s booth or heckle from the stalls. Going should mean just that - going. The majority of Britain’s party leaders of the past half century managed the feat with the exception of Ted Heath who haunted Margaret Thatcher like the Ghost of Christmas Past to his dying day.

There is however a problem with the GSLP. Gibraltar’s socialist party is very much the personal fiefdom of Joe Boss, its founder. There is a large percentage of people on the Rock who would never vote for the GSLP because they cannot abide Bossano. Equally there is another chunk of the population that votes GSLP solely because he is the leader. The day he is taken out of the equation it is difficult to know which way the voters will jump.

It will help the next leader of the GSLP if him or her can win the general election and hence become chief minister. Although Joe Bossano led the government in the late 1980s and early 1990s he has lost four elections on the trot. If Picardo or others can snatch the Rock’s top job Joe Boss can be shoved in to the background. Fail and he will be at their shoulder till his dying day.

When I passed the GSLP HQ the other day I am sure I heard the faint rattle of chains.

EARTH TREMOR IN GIBRALTAR

There was a major earth tremor in Gibraltar on Monday evening. No it wasn’t reported in the media but it happened – trust me, I’m a journalist.

Joe Bossano was again re-elected as leader of the GSLP – no news there then – but the fact that Fabian Picardo came forward to put his hat in the ring as a future leader without ructions could only have happened if Joe Boss had given the nod. That event alone meant the tectonic plates below the Rock’s political parties made a major shift as the big beasts Bossano and Caruana contemplate their futures.

It was back in 2001 that Daniel Feetham stomped out of the GSLP because Joe Boss would not make way for the younger generation snapping at his heals. Daniel then formed the Labour Party and after that fell flat on its face scampered off to the ruling GSD where he now keeps a low profile in a cupboard marked Minister of Justice. Rough justice or poetic justice perhaps. Compared with the ructions of the Feetham exit the stepping forward of Picardo – and I have no reason to expect that he’ll go unchallenged – was as smooth as a gentle waltz.

Before the last election Joe Boss made it known that he would not fight again as leader – and appears to intend to keep his word. So whilst he still holds on to the mantle the talented younger generation that now make up the GSLP ranks are coming to the starting line to see who takes over. The next election is due in 2011 or 2012 so we can expect Joe Boss to gently ease out and allow for an election at a future AGM.

It appears that Joe Boss will stay on as an MP after he steps down as leader. This is good news and bad news for the party. The GSLP is very much a Bossano fiefdom and many of its supporters, especially the older generation, are very loyal to him. If he is a GSLP candidate they will turn out for the party again. The bad news is that it is generally accepted that once a leader steps down, he should scoot off as soon as possible to allow the new team a clean run. José María Aznar, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher come to mind – but so too does Ted Heath who sat in the House of Commons scowling at Mrs T during her entire reign. So whoever leads the GSLP will have to make sure Joe Boss knows his place – and stays there.

The wise money is probably on Fabian Picardo to lead the GSLP – he is well known and has been Joe Boss’s side kick even making trips with him to the UN. Gilbert Lucadi is also in the frame and is not only a political colleague of Picardo’s but a legal one as well. There could be others. Far be it from me to wish to be seen pointing out the Messiah at this stage in the game. If a week is a long time in politics – then two or three years is an eternity.

Just one thing worries me on the GSLP’s part. The chief minister and GSD leader, Peter Caruana, has beaten Joe Boss four times on the trot and probably believes he can take him a fifth time too. OK that is not on the cards – but if in 2010 Joe Boss is hanging on for another year – and if the wily Caruana calls a snap general election – then either the GSLP would have to go to the polls with Bossano at the helm or be caught up in a leadership battle when they should be fighting the GSD. Hence the sooner the GSLP has its future leader in place or anointed, waiting in the wings – the better.

CARRACAO: RIGHT AND WRONG ON GIBRALTAR

The PSOE senator, José Carracao, has been speaking out again on Gibraltar. He does so as his party’s foreign affairs spokesman. As a former mayor of Jimena and president of the association of town halls of the Campo de Gibraltar, it is a subject he feels some confidence in tackling.

Of course I cannot view Carracao’s statements as a Spaniard – although Spain is my home, nor as a Gibraltarian – although I have written a weekly column about the Rock for 15 years. My opinions have to be as a Briton and hence it leaves me some what uncomfortable.

First he states that Britain’s interest in Gibraltar is purely military. Here I have to agree. Britain took the Rock in a military assault in 1703 and it was under the later Treaty of Utrecht that Spain ceded Gibraltar to what is now the UK in perpetuity. It is only in very recent years that the Governor of Gibraltar has ceased to be a military commander and the Rock has basically been a military fiefdom with little British interest in the rights of the native Gibraltarians. Indeed it is only now that the Rock has been freed from its colonial status, although views differ on that.

The importance of the Rock as a military base has decreased over the years but suddenly becomes strategic again when an emergency breaks out from Argentina to the Near East. However it did not stop British Premier Tony Blair along with his then Foreign Secretary Jack Straw seeking to do a deal with Spain by forcing the Rock to accept joint sovereignty. Certainly the opposition of Gibraltarians carried some weight but the real clincher was the Ministry of Defence that would not accept its bases being under a joint flag – and one has to wonder what input the USA made on this issue given that its nuclear subs and warships are frequent visitors.

Britain wants normal relations with Spain in the EU and is frustrated by the Gibraltar problem constantly rearing its head. If it hadn’t been for the military importance of the Rock the British Government would like to dump Gibraltar like a shot and to hell with its 30,000 inhabitants.

Although there is much song and dance about Princess Anne visiting Gibraltar this week, she was also there in 2003; the Queen and the Duke have stayed well clear. This is a British colony but there is simply no way its monarch would visit or rather be allowed to – compare that with the actions of the Spanish Royal Family who frequently visit Ceuta and Melilla and cock a snoot at the anger of Morocco.

Carracao then goes on to say that he believes Britain is acting cynically in defending Gibraltar’s right to self-determination when it handed over six million Hong Kong residents to China in 1997 and moved 3,000 people forcible from Diego García in 1972.

On Hong Kong he is wrong because unlike Gibraltar where the Treaty of Utrecht gives the Rock to Britain in perpetuity the hold on Hong Kong was purely on a lease basis. The lease was up, so that was it. On Diego García Carracao is right – Britain behaved disgracefully towards its inhabitants, as it has towards the Ghurkhas and as it has in the past towards Gibraltarians and would again if the population wasn’t European and street wise enough to haul the British Government over some very hot coals.

It could be that Gibraltar’s long term future lies not with Britain or Spain but with Europe. The move in that direction will come from Gibraltar’s new wave of politicians who are waiting in the wings to take over in the coming years. However it was that wily old fox, the former chief minister and current leader of the GSLP, Joe Bossano who first pointed me in that direction. Several years ago he told me that he thought the long term future of Gibraltar might lay in a Europe in which Spain had divided on regional lines – the Basques, Catalans etc. As Joe Boss has indicated that he will step down sooner rather than later it will be left to his successors such as Fabian Picardo and the leader of the European looking Liberals, Dr Joseph Garcia, to tread that path.

WILL PICARDO LEAD THE GSLP?

In my blog of yesterday I touched on the pledge made by the veteran leader of the GSLP and former chief minister of Gibraltar, Joe Bossano, that he would stand down before the next election.

If he is true to his word, and God forbid that a politician shouldn’t be, then the big game on the Rock at the moment is guessing who his successor would be.

According to an opinion poll carried out by the Gibraltar Chronicle 61 per cent of those questioned believed the new leader of the GSLP should be Fabian Picardo. He scores massively over Gilbert Licudi (18 per cent) and the leader of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Dr Joseph Garcia on 12 per cent.

Certainly Picardo has been Joe Boss’s bag carrier on his international trips such as to the UN in New York. He also has achieved a high profile in Parliament and seems to rattle chief minister Peter Caruana’s cage as effectively as his leader.

Although Picardo (a lawyer by the way) works actively alongside Dr Joseph Garcia there is bound to be some tension as Fabian was once one of his Liberal soldiers before he switched ranks to the GSLP. As far as I am aware Joe Boss has yet to anoint a successor but indeed Picardo must be the favourite.

Whoever wins the GSLP crown they would appear to have a battle on their hands. Although the 2007 General Election was tight with GBC in its exit poll predicting a GSLP win Peter Caruana and his GSD just scrapped home. Should a poll be held now then the Chronicle says the ruling GSD would win 62 per cent of the vote with the GSLP/Liberal Alliance on 34 per cent and the PDP at 4 per cent.

Another question is, of course, will Caruana lead the GSD to the polls – but that we will save for another day.

LET’S TALK TO BOSSANO

The Spanish senator and former mayor of Jimena, José Carracao, believes Spanish Government officials should not only be talking to Gibraltar’s Chief Minister, Peter Caruana, but also the leader of the Opposition, Joe Bossano.

He is quoted as saying: “Bossano is a real alternative to the present Government. He has 49 per cent of the vote and lost the election only by a few hundred votes.”

Whilst that is true, the veteran GSLP leader and former chief minister, Joe Bossano had made it clear that he would not lead the party in to the next election. Hence Carracao would also need to talk to the GSLP/Liberal coalition’s bright young stars such as Fabian Picardo and Dr Joseph Garcia.

What is not clear is whether this statement was merely a tactic to goad the chief minister but he says that Peter Caruana has acquired an air of excessive political self-importance - “If it were for him, he would only meet the Minister.” Curious because I know a leading television correspondent was trying to arrange an interview with the Rock’s top honcho without much success.

Carracao restated his support for the Cordoba agreement and believes it has had a positive effect on public opinion on both sides of the frontier. However he is concerned that contacts have been reduced to official exchanges. “Whenever a meeting of the Tripartite Forum is called, the general directors of Britain and Spain and Caruana meet. But that’s it. There are no meetings with institutions such as the Mancomunidad, or with the Campo mayors.”

Perhaps the wily old Carracao is just demonstrating his political nous because there is nothing more likely to stir Caruana from his lofty eyrie than the thought that his political bête noir, Joe Bossano, could be projected on to the centre stage, any stage, and especially one involving relations with Spain.